Hussein Askary
Vice-Chairman of the Belt and Road Institute in Sweden
Distinguished Research Fellow at Guangdong Institute for International Strategies
In his keynote address to the Third Belt and Road Forum in October 2023, President Xi Jinping said: “China can only do well when the world is doing well. When China does well, the world will get even better.”
President Xi used the above expression to reflect upon the reality of the world in which China, the world’s largest industrial economy and the super large market, finds itself. It also reflects the philosophy of common prosperity which the leadership and the people of China believe in. It has become obvious that the prosperity of China, as the world’s largest exporter of industrial and consumer goods, depends on the prosperity of other nations, on healthy and stable markets, and a peaceful world. But China, as it emerges as the largest market in the world, represents a great opportunity for other nations as trade and economic partners. Besides, resolving the problems of poverty, disease, and food insecurity in the world requires cooperation among all nations to reach the development goals of all, especially the least developed nations. China alone cannot resolve all the problems of the world, therefore, cooperation with the EU, USA, Japan, and other relatively advanced economies is a must now, if the aim is to bring about a stable and prosperous world.
As we approach the ushering of the new year 2025, the world does not seem to be doing well. The war in Ukraine is escalating and many analysts and policymakers are talking about WWIII and even nuclear war with unsettling ease. The genocide in Gaza is continuing with no end in sight, and the conflict in Palestine might expand to include Iran soon. The economies of the European Union, with some of China’s key trade partners like Germany are exhibiting a historically dismal performance. The U.S. is not doing so much better. The few bright spots in the world economy are China, ASEAN, India, and some countries in the Global South. The world is holding its breath until the inauguration in January 20, 2025, of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has made various contradictory statements since he one the vote in November. While he vowed to renew and reinvigorate the trade war with China, he also said in a speech that the “U.S. and China can together solve all the problems in the world” if they cooperate.
When I was reflecting on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China earlier this year, the image popped up in my mind was of a gigantic ship with 1.4 billion passengers sailing in stormy weather at times and calm waters at others. The captain, i.e., the Communist Party of China (CPC) in this case, while manoeuvring the ship to avoid obstacles and come safely out of storms, is steadfastly keeping the compass needle in the direction of the destination. The destination is the “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049”, which will coincide with the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. While the ship will continue its journey from there on to new and more fascinating destinations, its journey till now is already a remarkable achievement with no precedent in history, with 800 million people were pulled out of extreme poverty, and the world’s largest and most sophisticated industrial system is put in place. It is fascinating to think how a country as large as China with a massive population could move steadily in one direction.
The secret obviously lies in the wisdom of its leaders, on the one hand, and in the hard work of its people on the other. When China was fighting to liberate itself from imperialism, the CPC functioned in a certain way. When China became free, the CPC shifted to building the nation, its governance system and character. With the “Reform and Opening up” process in the 1980s and 80s, a new shift in this evolutionary process was made. China in the 21st century was completely transformed, and with the new era under President Xi’s leadership, China advanced rapidly into a higher-quality level of development which is unprecedented in world history at this scale and scope. It even managed to overcome and manoeuvre the ship of the nation around such dire crises as the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current global inflation-deflation crisis since the Ukraine war broke out.
But what I think, as a foreigner and world citizen, is in this evolution of China and CPC for the world is its decisive role in 2025 in creating a peaceful and prosperous world. Here, I focus on four important aspects:
1. Diplomacy and peace through economic development. China’s foreign policy is extremely important, since it focuses not only on diplomacy and achieving conflict resolution through peaceful means and dialogue, but that it addresses the root causes of conflicts. Respecting international law and UN-Charter-based system, not the so-called rules-based order invented by certain Western powers to suit their own purposes, is the key element in achieving an equitable and just global governance system. However, equally importantly is China’s advocacy and implementation of “peace through economic cooperation”. Therefore, I believe and wish that China will continue its drive in 2025 to end the wars in Palestine and Ukraine. This is of utmost urgency. China has proven its success in global diplomacy for example in bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia back together into normal relations in 2023 after 7 years of break up. This was a very important move in a highly unstable but very important region for the world. China has presented proposals for resolving the war in Ukraine and in Palestine too, but due to the attitude of the Western powers, these ideas were not implemented. The method of peace through economic cooperation and development is best exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative.
2. Continuing and expanding the building of the Belt and Road Initiative. The Communique of the Third Plenum Third Plenary Session of Central Committee of the CPC earlier this year declared that China will “refine the mechanisms for high-quality cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)”. It is already clear that the BRI is the greatest development initiative in history. The first 10 years of the BRI witnessed an unprecedented global infrastructure development process to connect nations, regions, and continents. However, the ultimate goal was not simply the promotion of trade, but lifting the world economy, especially in the Global South to a higher level.
“high-quality BRI” means that Africa and other nations of the Global South should leverage their comparative advantages to achieve industrialization, eliminate poverty, and raise the living standard for their people. China has responded by exporting capital, technology, and know how to these nations. China’s enormous trade and investments in ASEAN countries is well known. We see now industrial parks built by Chinese companies and employing local workers popping up in different parts of Africa, like in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Uganda. The nations in the Global South are gradually abandoning the role assigned to them by the unipolar world order as exporters of cheap raw materials and importers of expensive finished goods. China is not simply “offshoring” low-end production capacity to the Global South but building the necessary infrastructure and developing the skilled labour necessary for these nations to reach industrialization.
The economic rise of the Global South, with China leading the pack, is a factor to be reckoned with today. What the nations of the Global South see in China is a peaceful and stable partner with a long-term vision of development. What is different in the rise of the Global South from the Globalization of the 1980s and 1990s is not the “trickle down” of the prosperity of the West translating into the crumbs falling from their table to the poor and developing nations. What is new is that China’s rise becomes “a tide that lifts all other boats”, because China is sharing the fruits of its development with other nations. This is not only a show of compassion and respect, but a concrete translation of the scientific-economic principle of win-win cooperation, that China’s prosperity depends on the prosperity of other nations. China’s leaders realise that their country cannot prosper as an island in a sea of poverty and conflicts.
3. “Made in China 2025” must go global! It is based on the previous point, that I think that technological and scientific development in China benefits the world while it makes China more prosperous. The emphasis in the Third Plenary Session was placed on the acceleration of science and technology development, innovation, talent development in every aspect of China’s economy and cultural advancement. This will lift China into the stratosphere of development in the world. This development will even get bigger when advancements in AI, digitalization, and robotics start permeating the whole industrial sector of China. I personally saw a very good example of this in Guiyang, Guizhou Province, when I participated with a delegation of the international Silk Road Think Tank Association in a visit to one of the industrial plants for autonomous electric vehicles there. All the elements mentioned above were incorporated into the production process which is now called “new-quality productive forces”. In combination with a young and highly skilled staff, the factory was like a scene from a science-fiction novel.
The reason I believe that China will achieve the next stage of its economic, scientific, and cultural evolution is not based on any wishful thinking or guessing, but on previous success stories. I give one example on how goals set forth are achieved with accuracy and timeliness and sometimes way ahead of time. When the State Council issued the “Made in China 2025” plan on May 19, 2015, a ten-year action plan focusing on promoting advanced manufacturing in ten fields. China has become the world leader in all of them. Robotics and the use of robots in manufacturing was one of these, which I want to use as an example.
The “Made in China 2025” was greatly influenced by the deep understanding by President Xi of economics and the role of science and technology in economy, and the importance of moving from a high quantity to high-quality industrial production. Stressing the primacy of scientific and technological development over mere linear growth, on June 9, 2014, in a speech at the General Assembly of the Members of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Xi stated that scientific and technological innovation is constantly transcending geological, organizational and technological limitations. “Scientific and technological innovations, like a fulcrum which is said to be able to lever the earth, always create miracles. We cannot afford to lag behind in this important race. We must catch up and then try to surpass others”, he emphasized.
In the same speech he made the contrast between being a cheap labour market and being a modern industrial nation: “The old path seems to be a dead end. Where is the new road? It lies in scientific and technological innovation, and in the accelerated transition from factor-driven and investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth.” He took one example of what his intentions are, Robotics. “Robots are dubbed ´pearls on the crown of the manufacturing industry´. A country’s achievement in robotics research, development, manufacturing, and application is an important yardstick with which to measure its level of scientific and technological innovation and high-end manufacturing. Major robot producing companies and countries have stepped up their efforts to gain advantages in terms of technology and markets. I couldn’t help wondering: China will be the largest robot market in the world, yet can its technology and manufacturing capability sustain it through the competition? We should make better robots and seize bigger market shares.”
Xi concluded: “The direction of our scientific and technological development is innovation, innovation, and more innovation. We should attach great importance to breakthroughs in basic theories, step up the construction of scientific infrastructure, continue to push ahead with basic, systematic, and cutting-edge research and development, and provide more resources for independent innovation.”
If we observe, then, what happened since, we can confidently say that whatever the CPC and President Xi put forth as a goal for themselves and for the nation, it will be achieved. We have to remember that the world was not doing well then either, but despite that China achieved this goal. According to a recent study made by the China-antagonistic Australian Strategic Studies Institute (ASPI) “China is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies” in critical areas such as defence, space, energy, the environment, artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, robotics, cyber, computing, advanced materials and key quantum technology areas.
What is interesting here is that China is willing to export its newfound technological advancements and share with its partners globally, breaking a centuries-long monopoly held by Western powers.
4. Pursue the dialog of civilizations! The Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), which was launched by President Xi in a speech he made in March 2023, is a unique proposal for establishing the goals of global governance and relations among nations and cultures. It raises the bar of political dialog to a completely new level to address such philosophical issues as the purpose of existence of nations and civilizations and the means through which the achievement of a peaceful co-existence among nations of the world who are so diverse in culture, history, religion, way of life, and political and social systems is reached. The GCI has revived an optimistic spirit for a dangerously divided world today. It can potentially bury both the “clash of civilizations” and “end of history” insane and dangerous fantasies.
The last time such a speech with such intellectual brightness and optimism was given by a leader of a super power was delivered by President John F. Kennedy at American University on June 10th 1963. Speaking of global peace, Kennedy said: “What kind of a peace do I mean? What kind of a peace do we seek? Not a Pax Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war. Not the peace of the grave or the security of the slave. I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables men and nations to grow and to hope and build a better life for their children — not merely peace for Americans but peace for all men and women — not merely peace in our time but peace for all time.”
Xi stressed in his speech that the contributions of all civilizations and cultures must be respected and their contributions to human progress throughout history must be recognized. This in turn will contribute to further promotion of all nations and civilizations. “A single flower does not make spring, while one hundred flowers in full blossom bring spring to the garden,” Xi said.
In conclusion, China will step into the year 2025 with great confidence, even though realizing the great challenges lying ahead. And the world should be happy about that, because when China does well, the world would get even better.
Here in Sweden, we must embrace the dialogue of civilizations presented by the GCI and bring to the fore the best fruits of the Swedish humanist culture that made Sweden, which in comparison is a small nation, a great player in the global arena in many respects. Our economic, technological, and scientific capabilities, which are withering with the economic and social crisis Sweden and Europe are facing, can flourish again by joining hands with China and the Global South in building and expanding the BRI.
The Belt and Road Institute in Sweden wishes all a happy new year of peace, prosperity, and stronger friendship!
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