This article is adapted from a recent newsletter published by China Investment Research*
Sports officials and professional commentators realise that while television cameras must show the ball at all times, to really understand the game, one needs to look off the ball. So, while Western Media was transfixed with trade negotiations in Geneva (10th May) and President Trump’s highly visible Middle East visit (13th-16th May), there were developments in the Global South during the same time effecting the west but not emphasized by western media… hence this short note.
New China and CELAC
China, and President Xi in particular, have been steadfast in demonstrating China’s commitment to building strong relationships across the LAC/CELAC, prompted in part by Trinidad and Tobago voting for the PRC to join the UN in 1971, which “the Chinese people will never forget”. In September 2011, the Third China-Caribbean Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum was held in Port of Spain. The forum drew about 700 participants from China and Caribbean countries. During the Forum, China launched a number of policy initiatives to take place over the next 3 years, including offering multi-billion $ loans to support development projects. (1)
In 2013, Xi’s initial international trip as President of China saw him first visit Russia, followed by visits to Tanzania, South Africa, and the Republic of Congo in Africa, and ending in the Caribbean and in Latin America (before a hastily arranged visit with Obama in California). Xi’s Caribbean visit was the first by a Chinese head of state to the English-speaking Caribbean, and the first by Xi to the region. His first stop was in Trinidad and Tobago where he met with leaders from Antigua, Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Granada, Guyana, Jamaica and Suriname- that had no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan or Tibet as independent states. During the visit, Xi offered concessionary loans to 9 Caribbean nations totalling some $3 billion designed to help constructing new airports, upgrading tourism infrastructure, hydro-electrical plants, and improvements to public and maritime transport systems. He also announced that China was awarding a $250 million loan to build a children’s hospital in the twin-island nation.(2)
In Costa Rica, Xi signed agreements on projects worth nearly $2 billion, including upgrades of an oil refinery ($1.5 billion of Chinese finance), and a key highway and public transport contracts.(3) Xi’s visit to Mexico was designed to begin the process of diplomacy to diffuse differences which had arisen surrounding trade over the past few years. This visit produced a new bilateral trade agreement between the two countries. Xi also stated that Beijing was interested in investing in Mexico’s energy and mining industries, as well as in infrastructure projects. Finally, he announced that in 2015 Mexico agreed to host the first ever summit between Chinese and Latin American businessmen.(4)
China-CELAC Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the China-Forum of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States
On 13th May, The Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the China-Forum of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which marked the 10th anniversary of the Forum. Over 300 people, including 28 LAC countries, 6 regional organizations and over 50 ministerial officials attended the summit. Haiti and Saint Lucia, which both recognise Taiwan, sent representatives to Beijing for the CELAC summit. Panama’s ambassador to China was also in attendance.(5) Xi’s speech began with China’s history, both before and after the launch of New China, followed by some major highlights and commitments for the future. Relative to history, President Xi highlighted developments of China’s long history with LAC.As early as in the 16th century, Nao de China, or “Ships of China,” shuttled across the Pacific, marking the dawn of interactions and exchanges between China and the LAC region.(6)
From the 1960s onward, as New China established diplomatic ties with some LAC countries, exchanges and cooperation became closer and closer, leading to the launch of the CELAC. Xi then listed some successes over the first decade of China-CELAC cooperation across trade, investment, finance, science and technology, infrastructure, and many other fields.
- Under the framework of BRI cooperation, the two sides have implemented more than 200 infrastructure projects, creating over one million jobs.
- The China-LAC satellite cooperation program has set a model for high-tech South-South cooperation.
- Inauguration of Chancay (smart) Port in Peru has established a new land-and-sea connectivity link between Asia and Latin America.
- China has signed FTAs with Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Nicaragua.
- In 2024, trade between China and LAC countries exceeded $500 billion for the first time, an increase of over 40X from the beginning of this century.
Xi said that over the next 3 years, China will work with LAC countries to implement the Global Development Initiative, including upholding the multilateral trading system, ensure stable, unimpeded global industrial and supply chains; expand high-quality BRI cooperation and bolster cooperation in infrastructure, agriculture and food, and energy and minerals; expand cooperation in clean energy, 5G telecommunications, the digital economy and AI; carry out the China-LAC Science and Technology Partnership and increase inbound/outbound flows in trade and investment. China also agreed to provide a RMB66 billion ($900+ million) yuan credit line to support LAC countries’ development.(7)
At the end of the Forum, Colombia, which has a 45-year diplomatic history with China, officially joined the BRI. Since the 2013 BRI launch, 22 of CELAC’s 33 countries are currently members of the BRI. Panama left in February 2025.(8)
Key Components Not Mentioned Xi’s Speech or in 2025-2027 CELAC Plan
Critical Minerals Presence
Latin America plays a prominent role as critical minerals, including lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel, niobium, and rare earths, are concentrated in several LAC BRI countries. Brazil – has 94% of the world’s niobium reserves, 22% of graphite, 16% of nickel and 17% of rare earths – the 3rd largest deposit in the world (source: center Instituto Igarapé). Peru – according to data from Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mines:
- Peru is the 3rd largest producer of copper in the world with 110 million tons of reserves, essential for electromobility, renewable energy, and electrical infrastructure.
- Significant lithium deposits have been discovered in Puno, in southern Peru.
- Peru is recognized as the #2 producer of zinc in the world, trailing only China.
Chile currently holds more than a third of the world’s lithium reserves and ranks as the 2nd largest producer of lithium, with an approximate 25% share of world production. Chile also is the world’s largest producer of copper, which will also be needed for a much more digitised world.(9)
Nicaragua – Transformational Infrastructure Initiative Led by $64.5 billion Inter Oceanic Canal
Direct Maritime Route/Corinto Port Launch
In August 2024, the direct maritime trade route between Nicaragua and China was inaugurated, with the arrival of the ship Sunny Fortune at Corinto port from Tianjin Port. This direct maritime commercial route, within the BRI framework, is designed to capture the benefits of the FTA between both countries signed earlier in 2024 (diplomatic relations started in 2022). The launch of the maritime route was highly publicised. It was proclaimed “a transcendental event, a historic day for our country,” by Laureano Ortega Murillo, son of Nicaraguan President Ortega and Vice President Murillo, at the opening ceremony which was broadcast by official Nicaraguan media.(10)
Murillo explained that this route will operate with a monthly frequency of three ships. The first trip included importing 23 pieces of equipment and machinery to be used for the reconstruction, expansion and improvement project of the Punta Huete international airport (Punta Huete), located 58 kms northeast of Managua. Punta Huete, located in San Francisco Libre municipality and built in the 1980s, was designed to serve as an airbase, for military use, which will now be rebuilt and upgraded to an international airport.
Punta Huete International Airport Upgrade
CAMC Engineering (part of CMEC and SINOMACH) oversees the project of Reconstruction, Extension and Improvement of the Punta Huete International Airport, in coordination with the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure (MTI). (11) Construction work was expected to start in July, but the machinery and equipment required only arrived from China in August as part of the cargo of Sunny Fortune. Cost for the project is circa $500 million funded by loans from Chinese sources. These loans will have a repayment period of 15 years, a grace period of 4.5 years, and an interest rate of 5.2%. The runway will be 3km long and 60 metres wide, which will place the airport in the 4F category, with capacity to receive large aircraft (65-80 metres) and without weight restrictions. Construction will take around 48 months and some 800 workers have been hired for the project.(12)
Once completed, Punta Huete will be one of the most modern airports in the Central American region. As such, it will help position Nicaragua as an important node in the global transport network, improving international connectivity by providing direct links with various countries around the world. The air terminal is expected to receive about 3.5 million passengers annually. The new air infrastructure will not only boost trade and tourism but will also raise the visibility of Nicaragua as a strategic position on the global map, lifting its GDP growth through its ability to manage up to 35,000 direct flights a year from all over the world.(13)
Nicaragua Canal Project/Bluefields Port
In November 2024, President Ortega unveiled plans for a 445 km interoceanic waterway that would provide an alternative to the congested Panama Canal, presenting the proposal to Chinese investors at a China-LAC Business Summit. The new Nicaragua Canal project will have a length of 445 kms (longer than the proposed route in 2013), with a width of between 290 to 540 metres and a depth of 27 metres. The new route would connect the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific Ocean, beginning at a planned deep-water port in Bluefields on the Caribbean coast. The canal would traverse northern Nicaragua via Lake Xolotlan (also known as Lake Managua) before reaching the Pacific through Port Corinto. The announcement came as the Panama Canal, which handles around 5% of global seaborne trade, has been facing significant challenges with water levels and vessel traffic, leading to lengthy delays. “Every day it becomes more complicated to pass through Panama,” Ortega stated. The Panama Canal experienced a 29% decrease in ship transits over the past fiscal year due to severe drought conditions, according to the Panama Canal Authority (ACP).
From October 2023 to September 2024, only 9,944 vessels passed through the canal, compared to 14,080 the prior year. In May 2024, the government revoked a controversial concession granted to Hong Kong Nicaragua Canal Development (HKND) Group in 2013, which had proposed a 278 km route through Lake Cocibolca; however, the group could not raise the $50 billion required financing. As part of the new proposal, CAMC Engineering signed a contract with Nicaragua’s MTI for the construction of the Bluefields port facility.(14), (15) Ortega referenced historical precedent for the undertaking, noting that the United States had considered building a Nicaraguan canal as far back as 1854.(16) (17)
Other Major Infrastructure Projects Involving China in Nicaragua Include:
- Coastal Highway “Carratera Costanera”- initial stage of 355 kms along the Pacific shoreline, linking Corinto Port to the southern coastal tourist hub of San Juan del Sur. $400 million cost
- HSR rail line from Managua to Granada/ Lake Cibola. In October 2023, Nicaragua signed a MOU with CCECC to carry out feasibility studies, connecting the municipalities of Managua, Masaya and Granada. It remains in the preliminary planning stage.(18)
Other Agreements – Signed During the China-LAC Business Summit in Managua November 2024:
- MTI and Chinese communications company CCSI signed an agreement to design and implement a smart logistics centre with assistance from EPN.
- MTI and logistics company YTO Express agreed to design and implement a logistics centre to serve Central America • The energy and mines ministry and China’s CCCC signed an agreement to build the El Barrio wind park
- An agreement between the institute for social security (INSS) and Sinopharm includes the design and construction of a regional production and distribution centre (19)
Brazil – State Visit to China
The China-CELAC forum was followed by a State Visit to Beijing (12th-13th May) by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Lula’s visit to China, at the invitation of President Xi, followed his visit to Moscow (9th May) where he signed a number of agreements on expanding both countries cooperation in nuclear energy, including enriched uranium, in SMRs/ floating SMRs and in global food production (for BRICS). China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009, with bilateral trade reaching $188 billion in 2024 up from only $6.6 billion in 2003, during Lula’s first presidential term. Brazil exports to China have primarily been agricultural commodities, including soybeans, corn, beef, and coffee. Soybeans were Brazil’s #1 export in 2022. In 2024, Brazil overtook the USA as the world’s largest soy producer and accounted for more than 70% of soy exports to China, which purchases more than 60% of globally traded soybeans.
More recently, China and Brazil have focussed on diversifying into additional sectors such as animal protein, sugar, cellulose and coffee, alongside traditional exports like soybeans, oil and iron ore. In return, Brazil imports have focussed on machinery, electronics, parts, and EVs from China. The Brazilian government announced that Lula’s visit yielded approximately $4.8 billion in planned Chinese investments into Brazil’s automotive, energy, and food sectors.
The two nations also signed 36 commercial agreements covering areas such as energy, technology, agribusiness, and finance.(20) Great Wall Motor, Meituan (delivery), and Chinese energy, metal, and beverage companies, including CGN Power, Envision, Mixue and Baiyin Nonferrous Group, also announced investments in Brazil worth between 2-6 billion reals.(21)
The President of Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency stated that given the rising protectionism in the world, “there’s a growing need for closer ties between Brazil , the largest economy in Latin America, and China the world’s largest industrial hub, as both countries are “key leaders of the Global South, whether in food production, industrial output or even the service sector”.(22)
China-CELAC Cooperation – Specific Examples
The China-Brazil partnership is actually much broader and deeper than trade and investment as seen in two specific examples:
- Iron ore spat with Australia – Since China consumes approximately 70% of globally traded iron ore, any shift in trade policy could dramatically reshape market dynamics. In 2020, China imported 1.1 billion tons of iron ore – 66% came from Australia. Brazil was the second-largest supplier at 21%, and South Africa a distant third with 3.2%. Due to the trade spat, for the past several years China has been developing supply options in Brazil, Africa and India, and supply chains which include deep water ports/logistics. In April 2025, a Chinese ship successfully berthed at Luoyu Port, marking over 10 million tonnes of iron ore transported along the Brazil–China “Belt and Road”, a high-efficiency, deep-sea route connecting Brazil’s Tubarão Port and Fujian’s Luoyu Port.
- Pre- USA trade negotiations in Geneva – it was reported by Yuyuantantian, by a social media account affiliated with CCTV, that China moved to accelerate the replacement of US products before the high-level China-US trade talks in Switzerland. China reportedly signed a letter of intent (LoI) with Argentine exporters to purchase soybeans, corn, and vegetable oil shortly before the Geneva talks (Yuyuantantian). Early in April, China signed contracts to purchase at least 2.4 million tons of soybeans from Brazil—a volume equivalent to nearly one-third of China’s average monthly soybean imports the (Yuyuantantian) report said. China also signed a LoI with exporters in Argentina to buy about $900 million of soybeans, corn and vegetable oil (Bloomberg reported).The report noted that these moves underscored China’s efforts to secure alternative sources of US goods before the bilateral trade meetings started.(23) So while the merits of “the Global South” term continue to be debated, and the foreign ministers attending the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in April 2025 failed to produce on a joint communiqué, we argue the examples above indicate the existence of an emerging, effective multi-polar world where Global South countries play an increasingly important role.
Footnotes:
(2) https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2013/06/03/inenglish/1370274573_030447.html4
(3) https://www.sknvibes.com/news/newsdetails.cfm/74468
(4) https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2013/06/05/inenglish/1370460721_956003.html
(5) https://www.reuters.com/world/china-latin-america-trade-exceeded-500-billion-2024-2025-05-13/
(7) https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202505/13/content_WS68234033c6d0868f4e8f2811.html
(10) https://www.americaeconomia.com/en/node/288028
(11) It is interesting to note that the Nicaraguan government and CAMC signed the contract for the Punta Huete airport improvements on the 10th anniversary of President Xi’s 2013 visit.
(12) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/nicaragua-to-kick-off-major-upgrade-of-punta-huete-airport
(13) https://jpmas.com.ni/nicaragua-builds-the-most-modern-airport-in-central-america/
(14) https://www.intellinews.com/nicaragua-unveils-new-canal-route-in-bid-to-rival-panama-354300/
(16) The idea of an interoceanic canal first arose in Nicaragua .In 1849, Nicaragua granted the company of Cornelius Vanderbilt the right to build a canal, but it did not proceed due to political instability. In 1872, the US government conducted a 2nd study, while in Panama a French company began construction that ultimately failed. In 1897, US president McKinley appointed a commission a study which included a route for the canal in Nicaragua; However, Panamanian literature says that the US opted for Panama, after the Frenchman Philippe Bunau-Varilla, in June 1902, circulated some well-placed Nicaraguan postage stamps among US congressmen, just two years after the 1900 Momotombo volcano eruption. Those photos showed the increased relative stability of the Arco Chato in Panama (1678), being a determining factor for the US Government to choose Panama of stage 1 funded locally; China committed $300 million to stage 2 as part of FTA deal
(17) https://www.lifeinnica.com/blog/coastal-highway
(18) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/nicaraguan-electric-rail-link-in-prefeasibility-stage–ccecc
(19) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/nicaragua-and-china-sign-agreement-on-bluefields-deepwater-port
(22) https://english.news.cn/20250514/58493a9fc32248babf71bbca98dbaa0a/c.html (23) https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202505/1333776.shtml
* China Investment Research is a UK-based consultancy specialized in monitoring and analysing outbound Chinese investments around the world. It was founded in 2008 by Henry Tillman who is its chairman. It can be reach through this link: https://www.chinainvestmentresearch.org/